The move from gas to electric heating is speeding up in 2026, but in very different ways. Victoria has set firm dates to end new gas homes, England has published rules that make heat pumps the normal choice for new builds, and New Zealand is being pushed by falling gas supply rather than new laws.
For plumbers, gasfitters, electricians and builders, this changes what customers ask for and what skills pay. Here is what is changing in each country.
New Zealand: gas supply is shrinking
New Zealand has not banned new gas connections. The Climate Change Commission recommended a ban, but the government has not taken up that advice.
The bigger driver is supply. According to BRANZ, using MBIE data:
- Natural gas production fell 35 per cent in the last two years and is expected to halve again by 2035.
- The Maui gas field is expected to close at the end of 2026, removing about 20 per cent of supply.
- New household gas connections have fallen by about three-quarters from their peak.
- Vector forecasts no new residential gas customers from 2029.
- About 287,000 homes use natural gas, and around 300,000 households use bottled LPG.
BRANZ now says designing all-electric homes is the most prudent approach. It points out that heat pumps for space and water heating can be up to four times more efficient than gas. Customers who pick cheaper gas water heating up front may face higher running costs later.
Australia: Victoria sets firm dates
Victoria has the clearest rules in Australia. According to the gas distributor AusNet:
- From 1 January 2027, new homes must be all-electric and cannot connect to the gas network. Building permits approved before 31 December 2026 may still allow gas.
- From 1 March 2027, a gas hot water system that is at end of life and cannot be repaired must be replaced with an electric option, such as a heat pump.
- From 1 March 2027, rentals with a broken heating or hot water system must get an efficient electric replacement.
- Gas cooktops in existing homes do not have to be replaced.
Broken gas systems can still be repaired. Solar Victoria rebates of up to 1,400 dollars are available for electric hot water systems.
Nationally, Australian building ministers paused new home energy changes to the building code until mid-2029, so the main push in 2026 is coming from states like Victoria.
United Kingdom: the Future Homes Standard
England published the final Future Homes Standard on 24 March 2026. It applies to most building work from 24 March 2027.
- New homes must cut carbon by 75 per cent compared with 2013 rules. Gas boilers are not banned by name, but they cannot meet this level, so heat pumps and heat networks are the expected choice.
- Most new homes will need rooftop solar panels.
- Projects that apply for building control before 24 March 2027 can use the old rules, as long as work starts before 24 March 2028.
For existing homes, the Boiler Upgrade Scheme pays 7,500 pounds towards an air source or ground source heat pump. An air-to-air heat pump now gets 2,500 pounds. Homes on oil or LPG with no mains gas can get an extra 1,500 pounds until March 2027.
United States and Canada: support is shrinking
In the US, the federal tax credit for home heat pumps, known as 25C, ended on 31 December 2025. It paid up to 30 per cent of costs, capped at 2,000 dollars a year for heat pumps. Work had to be installed by that date. Homeowners can still claim 2025 work on their tax return, but there is no federal credit for new installs in 2026. State and utility rebates vary.
In Canada, federal support now focuses on two programs. The Oil to Heat Pump Affordability Program gives up to 15,000 dollars to lower and middle income households switching from oil heating. The newer Canada Greener Homes Affordability Program is being rolled out province by province in 2026.
What it means for your business
- Plumbers and gasfitters: get heat pump hot water training now. In Victoria, demand will jump from March 2027.
- Electricians: expect more switchboard upgrades and new circuits as homes swap gas for heat pumps.
- NZ builders: talk to clients about all-electric designs. Gas supply is falling and fixed gas charges are high.
- UK builders: check which standard each project falls under before the 24 March 2027 cut-off.
- US installers: be clear with customers that the federal heat pump credit has ended, and check state rebates instead.
Sources
- The future of gas in our homes, BRANZ
- New rules for gas and electric homes in Victoria, AusNet Services
- Victoria extends gas ban to all new homes and hot water systems, sets strict rules to electrify rentals, RenewEconomy
- Future Homes Standard Published: What You Need to Know, Home Energy Model
- Apply for the Boiler Upgrade Scheme: What you can get, GOV.UK
- Federal Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit (25C), Rewiring America
- The complete list of 2026 Canadian home energy rebates and tax credits, Ecohome
This article is general information based on sources available in October 2026. Rules, prices and figures change, so check the current details with the official source where you work.